Ceuta and Melilla: What If Sovereignty Changed Without Spaniards Having to Leave?

The real future of these two cities may be less about a battle of flags and more about building a shared economic space between Morocco, Spain and Europe.

Whenever Ceuta and Melilla are discussed, the debate almost always falls into the same trap.

For Madrid, they are Spanish.

For Rabat, they are the last territories under foreign sovereignty on Morocco’s northern coast.

And immediately, the collective imagination turns the issue into a geopolitical board game: if one country “wins” the cities, the other must necessarily “lose” them.

But in the 21st century, is that really the only way to think about a border inherited from centuries of history?

There is another possibility, far less spectacular but perhaps far more intelligent:

that sovereignty could one day evolve toward Morocco, without forcing the Spanish population to leave, without breaking economic ties with Spain, and without brutally changing the daily lives of the people who live there.

In other words: changing the political border without moving the people.

That is where the issue becomes genuinely interesting.

Two African Cities, Five Centuries of Iberian History

Let us begin with what should not be controversial: geographically, Ceuta and Melilla are located in North Africa.

Ceuta faces Gibraltar at the northern edge of Moroccan territory. Melilla lies farther east and is likewise surrounded by Morocco.

But geography alone obviously does not determine sovereignty.

Ceuta has a particularly complex history. After centuries under different Mediterranean and Maghrebi powers, it was conquered by Portugal in 1415. It remained tied to the Portuguese world until the 17th century, before its attachment to Spain was formally recognized.

Melilla also has a long Phoenician, Roman and Muslim history before coming under Spanish control in 1497.

It is therefore possible to hold two truths at the same time without setting the internet on fire.

Yes, Ceuta and Melilla belong geographically to the North African and Maghrebi space and have a long history connected to North African powers.

And yes, their incorporation into the Spanish political sphere goes back several centuries.

Mediterranean history is rarely polite enough to fit neatly inside a slogan.

Today, Legally, They Are Spanish

This point is essential.

Ceuta and Melilla are not simply two military bases administered from Madrid.

Since 1995, each has had the status of an autonomous Spanish city.

Another major nuance: unlike Gibraltar or Western Sahara, Ceuta and Melilla are not listed by the United Nations as Non-Self-Governing Territories.

That means one cannot simply claim that the United Nations considers their transfer to Morocco a process of “decolonization.”

It does not.

Morocco defends a historical and territorial interpretation that differs from Spain’s, while Madrid rejects Moroccan claims over the cities.

So what follows is a prospective scenario, not a description of negotiations currently underway.

And that is precisely what makes the real question worth asking.

What If Nobody Had to Leave?

Whenever people hear the words “territorial transfer,” they almost automatically imagine rupture.

One flag comes down.

Another goes up.

Administrations change.

Part of the population packs its bags.

That vision largely belongs to the territorial upheavals of the 19th and 20th centuries.

A modern transition could be designed differently.

Imagine that one day — in ten, twenty, thirty or fifty years — Madrid and Rabat decided to seek a definitive settlement.

The question would no longer simply be:

“Who owns Ceuta?”

It would become:

“How could Ceuta become Moroccan without forcing the people of Ceuta to stop being who they are?”

The exact same question could be asked about Melilla.

Moroccan Sovereignty With Spanish Guarantees

An ambitious agreement could eventually recognize Moroccan sovereignty while granting both cities a special constitutional or internationally guaranteed status.

Spanish residents would not be expelled.

They would keep their homes, their businesses, their property and permanent residence rights.

They could retain Spanish nationality and, depending on the model adopted, potentially obtain Moroccan nationality as well.

Spanish could remain an official language of local administration alongside Arabic.

Spanish schools could continue operating.

Pensions, acquired rights and social protections could be guaranteed by treaty.

A high degree of municipal autonomy could remain in place.

And most importantly, the cities could preserve a privileged economic relationship with Spain and the European Union.

This would not be simple absorption.

It would be a negotiated transition of sovereignty.

That difference changes everything.

Economically, the Idea Is Less Far-Fetched Than It Sounds

Ceuta and Melilla already have an unusual economic status.

Politically, they belong to Spain and fall under European treaties, but they are outside the European Union’s customs territory.

They already operate under a specific commercial regime.

In other words, the two cities are already European exceptions.

Creating a hybrid economic status in the future would therefore not mean starting from zero.

Even more importantly, Spain and Morocco have already moved toward formal commercial customs arrangements involving Ceuta and Melilla as part of their bilateral roadmap.

That detail matters.

For decades, the border was viewed mainly as a line dividing two sovereignties.

It is increasingly also becoming an economic infrastructure.

And that may be exactly how a different future would begin.

Not with flags.

With trucks, companies, workers, ports, universities and investment.

Geopolitics loves grand speeches.

Trade usually arrives carrying customs paperwork.

Less romantic, perhaps, but historically quite effective.

Ceuta Could Become a Bridge Rather Than a Border

Look at the map.

Ceuta sits only a short distance from one of the most important maritime routes on Earth: the Strait of Gibraltar.

A few dozen kilometres away are Tangier, Tanger Med and Morocco’s growing northern industrial corridor.

On the other side lie Algeciras, Andalusia and the European market.

Ceuta could therefore become a Spanish-Moroccan economic platform built around:

logistics, Mediterranean trade, financial services, tourism, technology, education, healthcare, maritime industries and Europe-Africa commerce.

Melilla could play a similar role in the economic development of Morocco’s Oriental region and the eastern Rif.

The paradox is striking:

today, the two cities are famous because they are borders.

Their future value may come precisely from becoming less of one.

What Morocco Could Gain

For Rabat, such an agreement would obviously represent a major political achievement.

Moroccan sovereignty would be recognized without military conflict and without breaking ties with its main European neighbour.

But the most important benefit might be economic.

Northern Morocco would gain two urban platforms deeply connected to the Spanish economy, with infrastructure, companies, skills and European commercial culture already embedded in them.

Morocco would not merely gain territory.

It would gain two interfaces with Europe.

That would be far more valuable than gaining a few square kilometres after triggering an exodus of the population.

What Spain Could Gain

This is where the scenario becomes genuinely interesting.

In the traditional national narrative, any change in sovereignty would automatically represent a Spanish defeat.

Not necessarily.

Madrid could obtain, in return, a historic treaty permanently protecting the rights of Spanish nationals, its economic interests, cultural institutions and access to both cities.

Spain could also gain a much more integrated southern border, deeper migration cooperation and a significantly stronger strategic partnership with Morocco.

It could lose formal sovereignty while retaining enormous economic, cultural and human influence.

That is not the same thing as “leaving.”

And Most Importantly: What the Residents Could Gain

There is one actor strangely absent from many debates about Ceuta and Melilla:

the people who actually live there.

We can debate dynasties, conquests, ancient maps and sovereignty for a thousand years.

But every house still belongs to someone.

Every shop has an owner.

Every school has children.

Every pension supports a family.

Any territorial change that ignored those realities would be politically explosive and morally difficult to defend.

No durable settlement could therefore be built against the residents.

Strong international guarantees would almost certainly be necessary and, politically, some form of democratic consultation would likely be unavoidable.

Morocco would also have something to prove.

Not merely that it could obtain Ceuta and Melilla.

But that it could become a sufficiently secure, prosperous and legally reliable state that residents would have no reason to flee when the flag changed.

That is a far more ambitious objective.

And a far more modern one.

The Biggest Obstacle: Trust

This entire scenario depends on one material more expensive than concrete walls:

trust.

Madrid would have to believe that Rabat would respect its guarantees for generations.

Residents would have to trust that their rights and way of life would remain protected.

Rabat would have to trust that Spain would genuinely accept the new sovereignty.

And Brussels would have to design a status compatible with European interests.

We are clearly not there today.

Ceuta and Melilla remain politically sensitive, and Spain continues to consider their sovereignty non-negotiable.

But that does not mean the strategic environment will remain frozen forever.

Power balances change.

Economies integrate.

Morocco is transforming.

Spain and Morocco are already cooperating in policing, migration, trade, infrastructure and major international projects.

The two countries can spend another century treating Ceuta and Melilla purely as disputes.

Or they can eventually begin treating them as shared strategic assets.

Neither Conquest Nor Expulsion: A Third Way

Perhaps the real problem lies in the language we use.

“Recover.”

“Return.”

“Cede.”

“Abandon.”

All these words imply that one country must gain exactly what the other loses.

But a border can evolve while preserving populations, cultures and economic interests on both sides.

Morocco could one day exercise sovereignty.

Spain could retain a major human, cultural and economic presence.

Residents could continue to be Spanish if they wished.

Europe could maintain privileged economic access.

And both cities could become areas of cooperation instead of fortified edges of two states staring at each other.

That scenario is politically distant today.

Of course it is.

But the Mediterranean borders we now consider permanent are themselves the result of decisions that once appeared equally permanent.

The history of Ceuta and Melilla proves that better than almost anything else.

Perhaps the 21st century does not need to solve borders inherited from the 15th century using the methods of the 19th.

The most modern solution would therefore be neither to expel Spaniards nor to erase five centuries of history.

It would be to reach an almost paradoxical situation:

Ceuta and Melilla would be in Morocco.

The Spaniards would still be at home.

And the border that once divided the two countries would become the place where they did the most business together.

At that point, we would no longer be talking only about territorial restitution.

We would be talking about geographical reconciliation.